Today In US Politics - January 8, 2021
The Capitol Hill Police messed up; Hawley's presidential ambitions are over; live-streaming federal crimes dumb; Trump faces removal from office ; the nuclear deterrent isn't secure; and more...
The Abject Failure of US Capitol Police
CNN reports and Bywire News confirms that a Capitol Police Officer has died as a result of the events on January 6. Officer Brian D Sicknick passed at 9:30 pm on January 7 as a result of injuries sustained in the assault on the Capitol building. This brings the death-toll from the insurrection to five.
Sicknick’s death could have been avoided. While he was mortally wounded by an insurrectionist mob, better planning and coordination by the Capitol Hill Police could have prevented it. AP reports that the Pentagon reached out to US Capitol Police three days before the riot to determine if it needed assistance from the National Guard. Justice Department officials made a similar inquiry as thousands of angry Trump supporters descended on the building. In both cases, the Capitol Police rebuffed the offers of aid.
Despite numerous warnings triggered by violent, radical groups planning an attack on the Capitol on January 6th, the Capitol Police prepared only to deal with peaceful protesters. The results speak for themselves.
As a result of these failures, the chief of the Capitol Police, Steven Sund, will resign effective January 16th. He is joined by the Senate and House Sergeants at Arms at the request of Senate Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Pelosi respectively.
***Senator Hawley Bet and Lost
Few Republicans hitched their star to Donald Trump quite so much as Senator John Hawley (R-MO). Hawley is a young and ambitious man: a Senator at 41 with his eye on the White House. Hawley bet big on the Trump movement, doubled down by being the first Senator to pledge to contest the 2020 election, and now (in)famously encouraged Mr Trump’s mob in the leadup to the riots. Even once the Senate and House were restored to their chambers and the rest of the Senate pulled back from its support of objections to the electoral votes, Hawley would not back down. His was the Senate signature which sent the House and Senate back to chambers to debate objections to Pennsylvania’s vote.
Today, Senator Hawley’s political future lies in ruins among the shattered glass and broken furniture that litters the Capitol building. Simon & Schuster have canceled their plans to publish Hawley’s “The Tyranny of Big Tech.” Military veterans in Congress and even Hawley’s fellow Republicans have turned on him. Even former Missouri Senator John Danforth, Hawley’s mentor, has turned his back, saying “I thought he was special. And I did my best to encourage people to support him both for attorney general and later the U.S. Senate and it was the biggest mistake I’ve ever made in my life.”
Hawley is young and the power of incumbency is real. He’ll likely hold on to his Senate seat when he runs for reelection in 2024, but that is as close as he’ll come to the White House.
The Selfie Insurrection
At least six Republican state lawmakers have been identified from photos, videos, and their own accounts of the assault on the US Capitol. These include West Virginia Delegate Derrick Evans, Tennessee State Representative Terri Lynn Weaver, Virginia State Senator Amanda Chase, Missouri State Representative Justin Hill, Pennsylvania State Senator Doug Mastriano, and Michigan State Representative Matt Maddock.
If you have information or can identify individuals who were involved in the incursion into the US Capitol, the FBI and the DC Police Department are looking for assistance and, in some cases, have offered rewards for information. If you have witnessed unlawful or violent actions you can submit information, photos, or video evidence at https://fbi.gov/USCapitol.
Removing Trump From Office
The President’s role in inciting the mob which attacked the US Capitol is undeniable. While Mr Trump has faced calls for his outster since before even taking office, this week’s events provide the most uncontrovercial justification yet for that removal. There are two primary routes by which a President may be removed from office: Section 4 of the 25th Amendment and impeachment followed by conviction and removal.
The 25th requires the approval of “the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide.” That means that Pence, with the cooperation of the majority of the cabinet, could remove the President from power, albeit temporarily.
There are a lot of problems with this.
First, the Vice President does not seem to favor invoking the 25th. That, on its own, makes any further discussion of the matter academic. Second, the President can reclaim his powers with a simple note to the Senate, retaining those powers until two-thirds of both houses of Congress agree to his removal. Third, it is unclear if the various unconfirmed “acting” cabinet secretaries get a vote in this matter and, if they do not, how “majority” is calculated.
CNBC reports that Secretary of State Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin discussed invoking the 25th within their own agencies. Other cabinet level officials have resigned, seemingly in protest, including Education Secretary Betsy DeVos and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, prompting critics to assert that “they’re resigning to avoid invoking the 25th amendment.”
By this point in Mr Trump’s Presidency, most Americans are more familiar with the mechanisms of the second option: impeachment. As we saw with Mr Trump’s Ukraine call, the House “impeaches” -- brings charges -- by simple majority and the Senate tries the case. Should two-thirds of the Senate agree, the President is removed from office.
House Democrats are moving fast towards a second impeachment and could bring articles to the floor as soon as next week. If they do so, and those articles pass the 117th Congress, Mr Trump will become the first President in US history to be impeached twice.
Nuclear Codes
While there are many political reasons to consider removing Mr Trump from office, the most compelling rational centers around national security. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spoke with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff seeking clarity about Mr Trump’s nuclear launch authority given recent events. She informed fellow Democrats of the conversation in a letter. You can read the text of that letter here.
CNN reports that Pelosi later told her caucus, on a phone call, that “there are safeguards in place in the event Trump wants to launch a nuclear weapon.” [This is quoting CNN, not Pelosi.]
Nuclear command authority is extraordinarily sensitive stuff. American nuclear strategy since the 1960s has depended on the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). In brief, both the United States and her enemies are mutuallyassured that, should they decide to use nuclear weapons, they will have those weapons used against them in retaliation and be destroyed. That assurance depends on the absolute certainty that the enemy will launch in retaliation.
The assurance Pelosi sought and apparently received from the Pentagon suggests that the American military is prepared to second-guess an order to launch. This casts doubt upon the willingness of the United States to use nuclear weapons in self defense. It is very, very dangerous.
If Mr Trump has lost the confidence of the national security apparatus then the appropriate action is not to imperil the lives of 320 million Americans. This is precisely the scenario the 25th Amendment was created to prevent.
The Zip Tie Guys
There have been threads on Twitter about this for the last 24 hours or so but Slate has the first properly sharable news story about “the zip-tie guys.” Several of the people who assaulted the Capitol were heavily armed and carried numerous flexi-cuffs -- disposable handcuffs. No one seems to yet know who they were or what their specific intentions were, but the photos strongly suggest a hostage plot, not unlike the one that failed against Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Keep an eye on this story over the weekend. It could change everything.
Bonus Stories
Richard Barnett, who was photographed with his feet up on Nancy Pelosi’s desk during the assault on the Capitol, has been arrested in Arkansas. Other rioters smeared feces on the walls of the Capitol building during the attack.
Mr Trump has reportedly told White House aides that he wants to pardon himself.
And the Biden team will release nearly all of the available vaccine doses currently being held back as stock for second doses after taking office. This will speed initial roll-out but puts the follow-up doses at risk if the government is unable to secure additional supplies in time.